FAO GLOBEFISH | Tilapia Quarterly Analysis
Editor/Mohamed Shihab
Production challenges and shifting trade dynamics
The global tilapia market showed divergent trends across product categories in 2024. While fresh tilapia production expanded significantly in several Latin American countries (notably, Brazil), international trade remained subdued due to tight supplies.
Contrary to expectations, tilapia prices in both China and Brazil declined throughout 2024, primarily driven by lower domestic demand.
The downward price trend in the domestic markets of these countries is expected to persist during 2025, reflecting ongoing market adjustments and regional production dynamics.
Markets and trade
Asia
China's tilapia farming industry, particularly in Hainan Province, is facing stricter environmental protection regulations. These new protocols, expected to be implemented this year, are likely to raise operational costs for processing plants in the region. In response to price declines for products in 2024, processors in the provinces of Guangdong and Hainan reduced their purchasing volumes and sought to bring down raw material costs. Consequently, the high inventories of tilapia caused farmers to lower their fingerling stocking rate in the second half of 2024. This is anticipated to result in tighter
supplies during the first half of 2025.
In 2024, Côte d'Ivoire remained the largest importer of Chinese frozen whole tilapia, recording a modest 5 percent increase in import volume but a notable 22 percent rise in USD value. Several other countries also increased their imports, albeit in smaller quantities. For example, Mali more than doubled its imports in value terms, with a 138 percent year-on-year increase. The United States of America imported approximately 35,000 tonnes of frozen whole tilapia from China in 2024, representing a 25 percent increase in volume and 53 percent increase in value compared to the previous year.
United States
In 2024, imports of fresh tilapia fillets into the United States declined to 18,915 tonnes valued at USD 147.1 million; in terms of volume, this was the lowest level since 2012 and a 17.4 percent decrease from 2023. This downward trend, ongoing since 2020, was driven by supply disruptions in key Latin American producing countries and rising tilapia prices, prompting a shift in consumer preference toward lower-cost whitefish such as pangasius. Meanwhile, newly imposed US tariffs on fishery products from China and Viet Nam, including frozen tilapia fillets, have further disrupted trade flows and may contribute to short-term price increases. These developments present market opportunities for emerging suppliers such as Brazil, which had more than doubled its exports to the United States to 4,763 tonnes in 2024 (+118.3 percent over 2023), supported by favorable exchange ratesand high US wholesale prices.
Latin America
Brazil's total aquaculture exports in 2024 reached 12,463 tonnes valued at USD 55.6 million, marking year-on-year increases of 92 percent in volume and 138 percent in value. Tilapia accounted for 94 percent of this export volume and value, its significant growth reflecting strong international demand and a strategic shift toward foreign markets amid declining domestic prices. Fresh tilapia fillets were the primary export product, generating USD 36 million—a 159 percent increase over 2023—while frozen whole tilapia exports rose by 155 percent to USD 15.2 million.
Elsewhere, Peru advanced its tilapia industry through regional expansion of sustainable farming initiatives in 2024, while Honduras strengthened sector growth by fostering innovation and collaboration through its first National Aquaculture Congress. Colombia maintained its position as a key supplier of fresh tilapia to the United States in 2024, exporting 14,376 tonnes valued at USD 105 million. This accounted for roughly 50 percent of the 28,579 tonnes of fresh tilapia (whole and fillets) imported by the United States in 2024, valued at USD 229.2 million.
Prices
Tilapia prices in China declined in 2024, with the price of whole live tilapia (300-500 g) in Guangdong remaining stable at CNY 9.24 (USD 1.29) per kg during the first half of the year before falling steadily to CNY 7.49 (USD 1.04) per kg by the year-end. Between October and December, the average price marked a 16 percent decrease from the previous quarter and a 9 percent decline compared to the same period in 2023. Brazil's domestic tilapia market in 2024 faced persistent downward pressure on prices due to oversupply and rising production volumes, with average prices falling from BRL 9.68/kg in January to BRL 7.77/kg in December—levels last seen in August 2022. This price trend diverged from typical seasonal patterns, such as Lent-related increases, due to sustained high availability throughout the year which suppressed price recovery. Even with temporary restrictions on Vietnamese tilapia imports to prevent additional competition, domestic demand was insufficient to absorb the surplus, creating continued price volatility. These price declines, which began in March 2024, continued through to early 2025, affecting producer margins. Larger average fish weights and stable fingerling supply since September 2024 further contributed to the market saturation.
Outlook
China's tilapia sector faces production cost pressures due to stricter environmental regulations, declining prices, and reduced stocking in 2024. Hence, in 2025, domestic prices in China are projected to decline further, especially with the harvest peak anticipated in June. While the first half of the year may offer relatively favorable conditions for Chinese producers due to tight raw material supply, a potential drop in overseas demand could create challenges in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, Latin American countries are likely to expand production and export efforts. Brazil's tilapia sector is expected to remain under pressure from high supply levels and subdued domestic prices in 2025, with international markets playing a key role in absorbing excess production and sustaining industry growth.
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