Globefish Report and Outlook for Tilapia

Editor/Mohamed Shihab

Market shifts impacting supply and trade.In 2023, fluctuations in the global tilapia market reflected changing demand and industry conditions which had influenced supply and trade dynamics. However, global production remained stable, indicating market resilience and

potential recovery in 2024.

Production

China’s tilapia industry faces supply challenges, impacting processing and export. A major reason for this is that fishmeal imports from Peru had plummeted by over 50 percent to 430 202 metric tonnes in 2023 due to the impact of El Niño. The resultant shortage affected tilapia production in China, which relies heavily on Peruvian fishmeal for tilapia feed. The recent cold weather in the provinces of Hainan and Guangdong has also disrupted operations, affecting the tilapia raw material supply going into 2024. In addition, the industry has had to contend with the introduction of an aquaculture licensing system which means adherence to stringent environmental standards for tilapia farms. While it shows that increasing importance is being attached to environmental protection, compliance under this new system includes treating aquaculture water before discharge, thus further increasing production costs for Chinese farmers.

Elsewhere in Asia, Indonesia is emerging as a key competitor to China in tilapia farming. Indonesian tilapia production is projected to get close to the Chinese output soon, with an anticipated 3.7 percent increase in 2024.

In African countries, Egypt’s tilapia sector is expected to grow in 2024, a positive change from stagnant output in the past. A 6.2 percent increase is estimated in Egyptian production in 2023 and a further 5.2 percent growth is forecast for 2024. Additionally, Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe are projected to grow by 15.6 percent in 2023 and 17.6 percent in 2024. In sub-Saharan Africa, commercial cage farms have spurred tilapia farming expansion.

In Latin America, Brazilian tilapia production in 2023 reached 579,080 tonnes, an increase of 5.28 percent compared to the previous year. In contrast, tilapia production in Honduras is in decline due to farm closures, rising costs, and climate change impacts. In 2023, Honduran tilapia exports dropped by 41.6 percent compared to 2022, causing concern over job losses. In 2023, the Colombian tilapia industry also suffered a 20 percent decline in production. This was due to El Niño and the consequent drought in the Caribbean, prompting some producers to switch to pangasius for cost efficiency. The sector is focusing on formalizing producers to access markets better. Concerns loom over consumer purchasing power, especially during the crucial Easter period, as prices went up strongly.

Market and trade

In 2023, China exported 110,211 tonnes of whole tilapia, up by 47.4 percent from 74 784 tonnes in 2022. However, the average price decreased from USD 2.2 per kg in 2022 to USD 1.8 per kg in 2023. Similarly, 25,634 tonnes of frozen tilapia fillets were exported in 2023 (27,153 tonnes in 2022) at a lower average price of USD 3.1 per kg as compared to USD 3.8 per kg the previous year. Although there have been minor price hikes in China, market stability is forecasted until May or June 2024.

Tilapia imports into the US market totalled 169,720 tonnes of tilapia worth USD 634 million during 2023, down 6.8 percent in terms of volume and 15.5 percent in value compared to 2022 due to declining production and rising input costs. Although China remained the top supplier with 113,279 tonnes worth USD 318 million, there were reductions in terms of volume and value (-2.7 and -21 percent). Meanwhile, Colombia (17,826 tonnes worth USD 117.3 million) continued to increase its share in the US market. Taiwan Province of China and Indonesiahared third place in volume and value, respectively.

The European Union has implemented new autonomous tariff quotas (ATQs), enabling the tariff-free import of specific seafood products. While these ATQs aim to block imports of aquatic products from the Russian Federation, the system also impacts tilapia imports. The 10 000-tonne tilapia ATQ increases costs for tilapia trade beyond this quota, potentially leading to changes in whitefish sourcing strategies and moving from tilapia to pangasius.

In 2023, Brazilian fish farming exports were dominated by tilapia, which made up 94 percent of the total, valued at USD 23.3 million. Compared to 2022, these figures represented a drop of 22 percent in quantity, but a rise of one percent in value. The United States remained Brazil’s top export market in 2023, absorbing 88 percent of the volume, worth USD 21.7 million.

Fresh fillets were in the lead, up 102 percent in volume and 147 percent in value, year-on-year. However, frozen whole fish exports to the US market decreased by 33 percent in volume and 41 percent in value. Other significant markets for Brazilian tilapia products were China (three percent), Japan (one percent), and Taiwan Province of China (one percent) In Honduras, the Central Bank of Honduras (BCH) reported a 41.6 percent decrease in tilapia export value in 2023 compared to 2022, amounting to USD 42.5 million.

Prices

The Chinese tilapia market has shown signs of recovery, with consistent growth observed in wholesale prices throughout the year 2023. During October and December 2023, whole live tilapia (300–500 g in size) in Guangdong province (DAP, Guangdong) were sold at CNY 10.34 (USD 1.44) per kg, reflecting a 16 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 24 percent increase year-on-year. However, import prices in the United States for frozen fillets decreased by 20 percent; frozen tilapia prices also dropped by 25 percent year-on-year in the last quarter of 2023. During the same period, Brazil experienced a rise in farmed tilapia prices in various regions; the exception was in Grandes Lagos, where the unit price of whole live tilapia dropped 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, from BRL 9.82 (USD 2.01) per kg to BRL 9.63 (USD 1.97) per kg.

Outlook

Tilapia production in China during 2024 may be affected by the shortage of Peruvian fishmeal which is used as feed; and also, the need to comply with new environmental standards for tilapia farms. These compliance efforts demonstrate an ongoing commitment to global competitiveness. While Chinese wholesale tilapia prices display consistent growth, Brazil may see diverse price trends within the country. Latin America faced disease challenges in 2023 but expects a production rebound and a positive trade outlook in 2024. African countries will continue to experience increased local demand and stable supply. Moreover, the ATQs set by the European Union may potentially impact trade patterns in 2024.

Source: Globefish/FAO

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