?Why the Concern

•         Water scarcity is single biggest threat to global food security.
 •         <!--[endif]-->There is little water left when Nile reaches Mediterranean.
 •         <!--[endif]-->Conflict most likely when downstream riparian is highly
dependent on river water and is strong in comparison to
upstream riparians.
 
•         <!--[endif]-->Egypt has threatened war if Ethiopia tries to block the Nile flow.
 
•         <!--[endif]-->Ethiopia responded no country can prevent it from using Nile water.
 
•         <!--[endif]-->Egypt says it will not give up its share of Nile water.
•         <!--[endif]-->Most upstream countries are seeking to use more water before it reaches Egypt.
 •         <!--[endif]-->Water is limited; riparian needs are growing; potential for conflict is real.
• 
•         <!--[endif]-->Basic Basin Facts:
 •         <!--[endif]-->Nile is world’s longest river—4,145 miles.
 •         <!--[endif]-->Nile basin is little larger than India.
 •         <!--[endif]-->Start of annual flood in Egypt is fairly predictable.
•         <!--[endif]-->But volume of annual flood varies enormously and is totally unpredictable. 
 •         <!--[endif]-->Average annual flow of Nile at Aswan from 1870 to 1988 was 88 billion cubic meters.
•         <!--[endif]-->Late 1970s through 1987 were
unusually low flow years.
 •         <!--[endif]-->Annual flow of Nile measured at Aswan
 has diminished significantly since 1900s.
 •         <!--[endif]-->Nile produces only 14 percent of Mississippi’s annual discharge.
 •         <!--[endif]-->About 200 million people live in
Nile Basin.
•         <!--[endif]-->Population in basin predicted to double between 1995 and 2025.
 •         <!--[endif]-->Agriculture biggest water consumer.
•         <!--[endif]-->  
Riparian Countries:
•         <!--[endif]-->Ten riparian countries; most important
Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Uganda.
 •         <!--[endif]-->Others are Kenya, Tanzania, Congo,
Rwanda, Burundi, and Eritrea. 
 •         <!--[endif]-->95 percent of Egyptians live in Nile
Valley and depend on river for fresh water.
 •         <!--[endif]-->Nile water is life or death issue for Egypt.
 •         <!--[endif]-->Nile is also crucial for Sudan.
 •         <!--[endif]-->86 percent of water reaching Aswan
comes from Ethiopia.
 •         <!--[endif]-->14 percent arrives via White Nile from
Uganda and southern riparian states.
 
Riparian State Basic Statistics:

   Pop. Pop. Average                   Gross 
Millions Growth Annual National
2003 Rate % growth Income
1995-mr GDP Per capita
1995-mr $ 2003
Egypt 68 1.9 4.9 1390
Sudan 34 2.3 6.2  460
Ethiopia 69 2.5 4.5     90
Uganda 25 2.8 6.3  250
Congo 53 2.2   -2.4   100
Kenya 32 2.3 1.7  400
Tanzania 36 2.5 4.8  310
Rwanda   8 5.4 9.9  190
Burundi   7 2.0 0.0     90
Eritrea   4 2.7 1.6  190
Africa 850 2.4 3.7   636   

                                   legal Situation:

•         <!--[endif]-->Historically, Egypt and Sudan determined Nile water allocations.
•         <!--[endif]-->1929 agreement between Egypt and UK gave Egypt 48 billion
cubic meters annually and Sudan 4 billion cubic meters.
•         <!--[endif]-->1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan allocated 55.5 billion
cubic meters (three quarters) to Egypt and 18.5 billion cubic
meters (one-quarter) to Sudan.
•         <!--[endif]-->Agreement assumed 10 billion cubic meters would evaporate
from Lake Nasser. 
•         <!--[endif]-->Treaties resulted in virtual Egyptian and Sudanese monopoly
 of Nile water.
•         <!--[endif]-->No other riparian signed 1929 and 1959 agreements.
•         <!--[endif]-->Inherent incompatibility between “equitable share” arguments of
upstream riparians and “historic needs, established rights, and no significant harm” arguments of downstream countries.

Irrigated Agriculture in Basin:

•         <!--[endif]-->Irrigation dominates agriculture in climatically dry
Egypt and northern Sudan.
•         <!--[endif]-->Egypt has begun Northern Sinai irrigation project that
includes Salaam Canal under Suez Canal and eventually
will use additional 4.4 billion cubic meters of water.
•         <!--[endif]-->When completed in 2017, New Valley Project will divert
another 5 billion cubic meters of water annually.
•         <!--[endif]-->Sudan now irrigates only about 1 percent of arable land.
•         <!--[endif]-->Ethiopia has about half million acres under irrigation.
•         <!--[endif]-->Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania have plans to develop
about 1 million acres.
•         <!--[endif]-->Huge new irrigation projects in Egypt and Sudan pose
threat to upstream riparians
 
Hydropower in Basin:
•         <!--[endif]-->Numerous dams for hydro-power in
basin;best known is Aswan dam in
Egypt.
•         <!--[endif]-->Sudan is moving ahead with new
 dams at 3rd and 4th cataracts of Nile. 
•         <!--[endif]-->Ethiopia constructing new dam on
Tekeze River. 
•         <!--[endif]-->Ethiopia plans to double hydroelectric
production.
•         <!--[endif]-->Uganda constructing another dam
near Lake Victoria.
•         <!--[endif]-->Dams only for hydropower are not
serious threat to downstream use of water.
 
Jonglei Canal:
•         <!--[endif]-->Controversial canal known as Jonglei in southern Sudan to move substantial amount of White Nile water around world’s largest freshwater swamp—Sudd. 
 •         <!--[endif]-->224-mile long Jonglei Canal would make available almost 5 billion cubic meters of water, divided about equally between Sudan and Egypt.  
•         <!--[endif]-->Excavation of Jonglei reached mile 166 in 1984 when the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) attacked project and stopped it.
•         <!--[endif]-->Will not be possible to restart project without consent of southern Sudanese.
 
How To Avoid War:
•         <!--[endif]-->Riparian countries have taken important steps to minimize conflict.
•         <!--[endif]-->Created several organizations to resolve problems
cooperatively.
•         <!--[endif]-->Most important is Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), regional
partnership of riparians.
•         <!--[endif]-->World Bank coordinates International Consortium for
Cooperation on the Nile (ICCON), which promotes
Financing for cooperative water resource development.
•         <!--[endif]-->Some programs can benefit most riparians by improving
water quality, encouraging cultivation of crops that require
less water, reuse of drainage water, and improving
environment in watershed areas.
•         <!--[endif]-->Countries with significant hydroelectric power potential could sell power to Sudan and Egypt. 
•         <!--[endif]-->Upstream dams can trap sediment.
•         <!--[endif]-->Evaporation at Lake Nasser is about 12 percent.
•         <!--[endif]-->It is only about 3 percent in Ethiopian highlands; water for Sudan and Egypt can be stored more effectively in Ethiopia.  
•         <!--[endif]-->These measures will reduce potential for conflict.
•         <!--[endif]-->Nile basin is huge opportunity for international community to engage in conflict prevention.    
 
Role for USG:
•         <!--[endif]-->Elevate Nile basin cooperation to major US foreign
policy priority in region.   
•         <!--[endif]-->Make cooperative solutions to use of Nile water
routine part of diplomatic dialogue.
•         <!--[endif]-->Support financially Nile Basin Initiative, Nile Basin
Trust Fund, and ICCON.
•         <!--[endif]-->Offer to finance technical assistance to develop
regional climatic models, short and long-term
hydrometeorological forecasting, and modeling of
environmental conditions.
•         <!--[endif]-->Encourage NBI to draw on US technical expertise in
areas such as remote sensing and GIS. 

 sameh farouk [email protected]