Tilapia Supplies and market expected to stabilize

Editor/Mohamed Shihab

While the global tilapia supply remained stable overall in Q1 2024, the market experienced rising prices due to various production challenges. In China, producers are contending with higher material costs, while Latin American producers are facing climate disruptions and disease outbreaks. However, adjustments are anticipated soon, and the tilapia market is expected to be stable in 2024.

 Production

The global tilapia production for 2024 is forecasted to reach seven million tonnes, up by 4–5 percent compared to 2023. China, the leading tilapia producer, has seen a stabilization in the growth rate of the industry at approximately 2.4 percent recently. In the meantime, the China Aquatic Products Processing and Marketing Alliance (CAPPMA) forecasts a positive trajectory for the country’s tilapia industry this year, driven by increasing consumer demand in the domestic market. Elsewhere in Asia, the Indonesian Government continues to invest in tilapia farming, drawing inspiration from China’s successful supply of the species to the United States of America. Over the past decade, the industry in the country has been experiencing a notable compound annual growth rate of about 10.4 percent. According to Peixe BR (the Brazilian Fisheries Association), tilapia accounts for 55–57 percent of Brazil’s seafood output, making it the fourth-largest tilapia producer globally. Despite its significant production and export of tilapia, Brazil had previously relied on frozen tilapia fillet imports from Viet Nam, which were halted due to concerns over Tilapia Lake Virus (TiLV). The local industry, aware of the need to stay competitive against other tilapia sources, sees great potential in producing by-products such as tilapia skin, minced fish, and fillets coated with gluten-free tapioca starch, but it is expected that adjustments in supply and demand could affect price dynamics in the coming months this year.

Elsewhere in Latin America, the Colombian fishery sector faced significant challenges in Q1 2024. Factors such as El Niño-induced water shortages, disease outbreaks, and reduced consumer purchasing power have affected the aquaculture sector, notably in the Betania reservoir area, which has seen record mortality rates.

Market and trade

 In Q1 2024, tilapia prices in the southern Chinese provinces (such as Guangdong) increased due to low pond inventory. Despite a 50 percent rise in fingerling stocking at the beginning of 2024 compared to the same period last year, supply levels have remained lower than in 2022. Meanwhile, tilapia exports are anticipated to rebound as the domestic market continues to experience an economic downturn. Côte d’Ivoire and the United States of America are the top buyers in that quarter, with import values increasing by 26 and 20 percent, respectively, compared to the previous year. Although the European Union countries are not making large purchases, their tilapia imports from China have significantly increased, with countries like Belgium and Italy showing a five-fold rise in value. The tilapia market in the United States has been experiencing a supply shortage, particularly of fresh fillets, due to issues with several suppliers in Q1 2024. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), total US tilapia imports for January to March 2024 amounted to 41 622 tonnes worth USD 167 million, reflecting a six percent decline in volume and a two percent decline in value compared to the same period in 2023. This continued the downward trend, albeit with smaller year-on-year reductions compared to previous years. China remains the primary supplier to the US market with 27 630 tonnes (down 8.3 percent) worth USD 84.6 million (down 3.1 percent), followed by Colombia with 4 409 tonnes (up three percent) worth USD 32.2 million (up 10.2 percent) in Q1 2024. Other notable Latin American suppliers included Brazil, Costa Rica and Honduras, with the 355 tonnes of fresh tilapia fillets from Brazil representing a 79 percent yearon-year increase. In Latin America, the Colombian market saw prices rise slightly, reducing consumption and accessibility. Encouragingly, the value of tilapia exports increased by 115.5 percent compared to the first quarter of 2023, with Colombia exporting 906 tonnes to the United States, up by five percent from the previous year. However, potential La Niña effects such as heavy rains and flooding could negatively impact prices across the regions. Elsewhere, Brazil’s tilapia exports have trailed other Latin American nations. Recent changes show Brazil competing closely with Costa Rica as the second-largest exporter of fresh tilapia fillets to the United States, just behind  Colombia. In Q1 2024, Brazilian tilapia farming led the way, accounting for 95 percent of all exported fish and generating USD 8.31 million. About 80 percent of the tilapia exports went to the United States as fresh or chilled fillets valued at USD 5.64 million, while the frozen whole category accounted for the rest of the volume (776 tonnes) and 23 percent of the value (USD 1.87 million).

Prices

 In Q1 2024, Chinese tilapia prices spiked due to raw material shortages, despite higher stocking rates. In Guangdong province, whole live tilapia (300–500 g) was priced at CNY 9.24 (USD 1.29) per kg during January-March 2024, marking a 13 percent increase from the prior quarter and a 45 percent increase from the same period the previous year. In the United States, Q1 2024 import prices for frozen whole tilapia and chilled tilapia fillets increased by four and five percent year-on-year, respectively. Elsewhere, Brazilian tilapia prices remained stable despite high demand, although with some slight declines in most regions. In the region of Grandes Lagos, Brazil, the unit price of whole live tilapia in Q1 2024 was BRL 9.62 (USD 1.97) per kg, down two percent from the previous quarter, but up by eight percent yearon-year.

Outlook

 The tilapia supply in China is currently facing high input costs, leading to price increases in both domestic and international markets. However, a positive recovery is anticipated in 2024 as material costs are expected to decrease, minimizing the long-term impact on the international market. Meanwhile, Latin American countries are experiencing stable growth in trade despite production supply challenges. Although the global supply is tight, the increasing consumption suggests a positive outlook for the tilapia market overall.