FAO aquatic product production forecast 2023-2032

Editor/Mohamed Shihab

By 2032, the total global aquatic product production will increase from 181 million tons in 2020-2022 to 202 million tons per year. 96% of this additional growth will be due to increased aquaculture production, which is expected to reach 111 million tons per year by 2032.

This growth figure is down from the increase of 33 million tons in the previous 10 years. According to the report, this is due to the fact that China, the world's largest aquaculture producer, tightens regulations on the sustainability of the industry and growth in aquatic product production will slow significantly.

In terms of species, the share of common carp - the most produced farmed fish - is projected to decline over this period. This represents a continuation of the downward trend that started in the late 1990s, especially in China, and is in line with the trend to diversify domestic aquatic products to meet market demand. At the same time, the shares of shrimp and prawns are expected to increase, while the shares of tilapia and salmon will remain roughly stable.

In terms of prices, the report expects fish prices to fall by 9.0%, in stark contrast to the actual increase of 13% in the previous decade. Fish oil prices are expected to decline by 14 percent in real terms, while fishmeal prices are expected to decline by only 0.6 percent in real terms, reflecting continued tight supplies and strong demand.

According to the report, the biggest challenges facing aquaculture will be "the incidence and extent of climate-induced temperature, precipitation, ocean acidification, hypoxia and sea-level rise, the availability of wild seeds, and increased competition for freshwater due to reduced precipitation" .

The effects of climate change will not be evenly distributed, and the changes will be greater in the tropics than in the temperate regions.

Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) released the "2023-2032 Agricultural Outlook"